A shrinking pool of public companies

Once upon a time, there were 7,000+ publicly listed companies in the U.S. in the mid-1990s. (Tuck School of Business) Over the past two decades, that number has fallen to 4,000-ish (or even fewer, depending on how you count). (Forbes) Fewer firms means fewer “new” stories, fewer zones of growth for regular investors, fewer fresh opportunities.

Industries & markets consolidating

The dynamic has changed: today many sectors are dominated by big players, private capital is abundant, and companies can raise money without ever going public. Because staying private, or using private credit, often offers more control and less disclosure, many companies choose that instead of listing.

Private credit stepping in

Here’s a big shift: the growth of private credit and non-bank financing. Firms no longer have to IPO to raise large amounts of capital. Private credit is booming, less regulated, more flexible. (Morgan Stanley) When the traditional public market loses its gatekeeper role for new capital, it becomes a secondary venue instead of primary.

The retirement savings loop fraying

A key mechanism: people work → save in retirement plans like 401(k)s → those plans invest in the stock market → companies grow, hire more people → repeat. If (1) fewer companies are entering the public market, (2) fewer jobs or lower wages mean fewer contributions to retirement plans, then the loop weakens. Who’s contributing to the 401(k)s if jobs shrink or are less stable? And if retirement capital flows less into public stocks, what happens to the public market’s role? What happens if this continues?

• Public markets become dominated by mega-companies, fewer growth stories; retail investors have less room to play.

• Capital formation shifts toward private markets (private equity, private credit) — the public market becomes more of a trading venue than a growth venue.

• Retirement savers and small investors might get locked out of the best growth-stage opportunities (which are staying private).

• The “stock market” as we’ve known it (broad, vibrant, accessible) could shrink in relevance or be replaced by a different architecture of capital.

Why this idea matters

If you believe this trend, it forces a rethink: for policymakers (how to ensure capital formation and fairness), for retirement planning (how will small investors get exposure?), and for tech/fintech (can platforms like ours, FUTRS, step in and enable access to the new forms of capital?).

Final thought

I’m not saying the stock market will disappear tomorrow — but the paradigm underpinning it might. It may shift from being the primary growth-capital venue for companies and savers, to being one of many or even a niche channel. And if that shift completes, what we call “the stock market” could look very different.